Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be?

68¢Samuel Alito

Price history builds as this market trades.

No price history yet

Samuel Alito68%

Clarence Thomas22%

Sonia Sotomayor4%

John Roberts2%

Elena Kagan1%

Amy Coney Barrett1%

4 more2%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Samuel Alito at about a 68% chance — likely.

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StatusOpen

ClosesJan 1, 2031 · 4y

Total volumeⱮ5.6K

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Jan 1, 2031 (4y)

Resolution criteria

If it's multiple justices simultaneously, this market will resolve to an per-person split of all correct answers (eg: if there were 11 Justices and all 11 left, it would resolve with each current member AND 2 shares on A Justice not yet seated

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗