Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Samuel Alito at about a 70% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Out of all the current justices on the Supreme Court, who will be the first to stop serving for any reason? This could be due to death, resignation/retirement, impeachment, term limits being imposed, incapacitation, or any other reason. The justices are listed here in order of seniority. I will extend the closure date if no one has left the bench yet.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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