Will the US Supreme Court take up a case on these LGBT+ issues by EOY 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Gender-affirming care for minors at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Will SCOTUS grant cert on cases which involves these LGBT+ topics by end of year 2026? (https://manifold.markets/embed/Noah1/will-the-us-supreme-court-take-up-a-e3aa03eae53c)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗