Who will win the November 2026 election for the Texas State Senate District 9 seat?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Taylor Rehmet at about a 76% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The November 2026 election features a rematch between March runoff winner and current incumbent Democrat Taylor Rehmet and his Republican opponent Leigh Wambsganns. They are running for a full term in the Texas State Senate, after Rehmet won a partial term earlier in the year to replace the exiting state senator. Background on their previous meeting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–26_Texas%27s_9th_Senate_district_special_election Resolution criteria The general election will occur on November 3, 2026. The winner will be determined by the candidate receiving the most votes in the general election. Resolution will be based on official results from the Texas Secretary of State or major news outlets reporting final certified results. Background Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss in the State Senate District 9 runoff election, flipping the reliably Republican district, which deeply favored Donald Trump in 2024 and has been represented by a Republican since the 1980s. Rehmet prevailed with 57.21% of the vote over Wambsganss' 42.79%. Senate District 9 encompasses much of northern Tarrant County, including much of Fort Worth, North Richland Hills, Southlake and Keller. The district is strongly Republican, with Donald Trump carrying the district by 17 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Rehmet is a veteran and union leader with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, with a platform including advocating for workers' and veterans' rights, investing in public education and public transportation. Wambsganss is the chief communications officer for Patriot Mobile, a cellphone company that has helped back the Christian conservative school board candidates. Considerations The January special election was held on a Saturday with no other candidates on the ballot, following a cold snap that affected campaigning and early voting. The race had very low voter turnout, typical of off-cycle special elections. Rehmet received significant crossover support in his victory, winning nearly 30% of voters who had previously voted in Republican primaries. Rehmet also won nearly 80% of the estimated Hispanic vote in the district, a marked improvement for Democrats compared to the 2024 election. This description was generated by AI.
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