Elon Musk full mental breakdown when?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2029 or later at about a 76% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Update 2025-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification: The market will resolve by a poll after the next public meltdown by Elon Musk. A qualifying meltdown must be public and captured on camera or recorded in media (excluding Twitter). This determination will be based on the perception of it being a very public, unhinged meltdown. Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification to the 'Other' Option: The Other option is defined as any point in time not covered by the other specific options. Update 2025-03-23 (PST): - Meltdown Timing: The qualifying meltdown for 'He already did' must have occurred prior to market creation. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated the market will not be fully resolved after the first qualifying meltdown. Instead, the market will remain open until its close date in 2029. If a qualifying meltdown occurs, it may trigger a partial resolution for that time period. This allows for the possibility of multiple partial resolutions for different answers over the lifetime of the market. Dear @traders, at the suggestion of @Quroe, I temporarily unlisted the market as the poll is underway to prevent market manipulation. However, that seems to have deleted all the comments. Would appreciate if @mods can work on this issue. This is the poll in question: https://manifold.markets/Lorelai/did-musks-early-june-implosion-coun Update July 3: Market is listed again, will remain open for now.
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