Iran vs US (props)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: US ground troops, including special operations forces, physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026 at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The top 8 propositions are all at 100%, indicating they have already resolved as Yes, leaving the remaining 35 props in a highly dispersed field with no single alternative above 10%—the market is effectively closed for the front-runners, not open.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently: the provided headlines (all World Cup betting or policy pieces) do not address the US-Iran war props, so the current 100% levels are driven by past events, not new news.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The eight leading props (e.g., US ground troops enter Iran, casualties exceed 100) are at 100% because the resolution text confirms they have already occurred: Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites, implying these triggers were met.
- • The market is a set of binary events that resolve automatically once conditions are satisfied; the 100% odds reflect that the deadlines (e.g., May 1, March 31) have passed and the events transpired, making further movement impossible.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open for the 35 lower-probability props (e.g., those with deadlines after July 10, 2026, or those still undecided), but none exceed 5% currently, so any could rise if new military actions or diplomatic shifts occur.
- • To overtake the top props, a new proposition would need to be added or an existing low-probability prop would need to suddenly become certain—but the top eight are already resolved, so no overtaking is possible for them.
What to watch
- • Any future US or Iranian military action (e.g., new airstrikes, naval clashes) after July 10, 2026, would likely push related unresolved props toward 100%, especially if they involve the same categories (e.g., damage to energy infrastructure).
- • A diplomatic ceasefire or de-escalation would cause unresolved props (e.g., daily military activity) to drop sharply, potentially toward 0%, as the conflict winds down.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites. Commands /add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting. /clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous /check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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