Will the US economy still be "normal" in each of the following ways on February 14, 2029?

92¢The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60

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The Gini coefficient is less than 0.6092%

Median wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 202692%

The largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap91%

CPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually90%

The U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%89%

Median household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income89%

11 more926%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60 at about a 92% chance — very likely.

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StatusOpen

ClosesFeb 14, 2029 · 2y

Total volumeⱮ46.2K

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Feb 14, 2029 (2y)

Resolution criteria

Freddie deBoer's proposed a bet with Scott Alexander, predicting that all of these 17 conditions will be true: I'm Offering Scott Alexander a Wager About AI's Effects Over the Next Three Years.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗