Will a Republican senate vote in a Democratic Supreme Court nominee?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: No (Team Pisco) at about a 95% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Timestamp of Pisco vs Destiny bet: https://www.youtube.com/live/b4Pg1ZnAbBg?si=AsEcXMT5ggkv_ela&t=23069 Summary of bet: Pisco bet that the senate will not vote in a Democratic nominee. Calendar for Supreme Court events: https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendarsandlists.aspx Market will close if either of the conditions are met: 1. No - If no one is seated 2. No - if a Republican is seated 3. Yes - If a Democrat is seated
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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