Which countries will graduate from least developed country (LDC) status before 2030?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: São Tomé and Príncipe at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Since 1971, the United Nations (UN) has categorized and triennially reviewed "least developed countries" (LDCs) according to three criteria: Per capita income Human assets (indicators of nutrition, health, school enrolment and literacy) Economic and environmental vulnerability As of 2024, the UN classifies 45 countries as LDCs, having graduated seven countries* since the classification's inception: Botswana in December 1994 Cabo Verde in December 2007 Maldives in January 2011 Samoa in January 2014 Equatorial Guinea in June 2017 Vanuatu in December 2020 Bhutan in December 2023 * (an eighth country, Sikkim, exited LDC status by annexation to India in 1975) This question resolves YES to each current LDC that ceases to be on the LDC list for any reason (i.e. growing out of the classification, or ceasing to be a country) before the end of 2029. All above-listed countries that are still LDCs on 1 Jan 2030 will resolve NO. Please feel free to add entries from the UN's list of LDCs. Several countries are expected to graduate from LDC status before 2030. The UN lists São Tomé and Príncipe, Bangladesh, Laos, Nepal, and Solomon Islands on its timeline of LDC membership changes. Wikipedia also notes the countries of Angola, Comoros, Djibouti, Senegal, and Zambia may graduate in 2027, though no earlier. However, some countries that were slated to graduate in recent years have had their LDC status change delayed, including Angola (previously expected for 2021), Nepal (2021), and Bangladesh (2018 and 2021). Which countries will graduate from LDC status before 2030?
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