Russia coup-nuke combination market
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: No nuke Ukraine, No coup success at about a 93% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
A combination of https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine and https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p using their resolution criteria. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Gigacasting/will-russia-nuke-ukraine)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MetaculusBot/will-a-coup-or-regime-change-take-p)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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