If Donald Trump is elected, which of his campaign promises will be achieved?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: "designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations" at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Which of Donald Trump's campaign promises will he actually achieve? All options are taken from https://www.donaldjtrump.com/issues or https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-cementing-fair-and-reciprocal-trade-with-the-trump-reciprocal-trade-act Resolves YES for any items that have been achieved by the end of his presidency. They have to actually have been achieved (for example, a bill has passed to ban trans women from participating in women's sports, a constitutional amendment has been passed), though it doesn't have to be the most complete version, just enough that it's reasonable to say that it has been achieved (for example, trans women could be banned at the high school level but not college level). He doesn't have to have directly caused it to happen, it just has to have happened. They do have to have occurred nationwide however (so individual states banning trans women would not count without a nationwide ban). If any promise was debatably already true (for example, ending COVID mandates), he must take some action to go further. For many of these, it will ultimately wind up being somewhat subjective, but I will do my best to be impartial and defer to consensus opinion, and I will not hold any positions in this market. If any are too ambiguous, I reserve the right to resolve N/A. All options resolve N/A if Donald Trump is not elected president in 2024. For some positions that are not objective on Trump's campaign website, I will provide a specific definition below. For items that are based on a given date, I will as close as possible compare December 31, 2024 with December 31, 2028, or compare December 2024 with December 2028. For items based on a quarter, I will compare Q4 2024 with Q4 2028. For items that are based on a given year or fiscal year, I will compare 2024 with 2028. "lower taxes" Compare the total federal revenue in each year, adjusted for GDP. This is not precisely the same as taxes, but it's almost entirely taxes and other forms of fees are in some way equivalent to taxes "bigger paychecks" Compare the "Annual Wages per Employee" in each quarter, adjusted for inflation "more jobs for American workers" The nonfarm payroll employment in the US is higher than at the start of the term. "reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas" Compare the national average price of gasoline and diesel at the pump, and Henry Hub Natural Gas spot price. All three must be lower.
Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is moderately concentrated with Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez combining for 66%, but the 21% for both Buttigieg and Harris and a 23% 'Other' share show significant latent openness; the biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in 2028 (NYT, Jul 24), which could reshape candidate strategies and delegate math.
8 outcomes
2028 Presidential Election Winner
The field is unusually fragmented with no candidate above 18%, and the top three sum to just 41%, reflecting a wide-open race where the biggest recent shift is the absence of a clear front-runner despite ongoing midterm elections and controversies over election integrity. The 2026 primary results (NBC News, Jul 23) are reshaping candidate viability, but no single contender has consolidated support yet.
40 outcomes