How will Trump serve time?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Never at about a 92% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his sentence begins.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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