Which of the following parties will be in office on December 31, 2028?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: CCP (China) at about a 97% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves to YES if the party is in power by on December 31, 2028. Resolves to YES if the party is part of the ruling coalition, even if the incumbent president/PM is from a different party. Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria Parliamentary Systems: The resolution depends on whether the party is part of the incumbent parliamentary coalition on 12/31/2028. Presidential or Semi-Presidential Systems: The outcome will be based on the president’s coalition on 12/31/2028. Russia’s Specific Case: The resolution will be determined by the parties included in the cabinet of Russia on 12/31/2028.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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