Supreme Court Justice Out/New Justice Confirmed by EOD Jan 3 2027?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: No Supreme Court Justice Leaves at about a 70% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This market resolves based on whether a U.S. Supreme Court Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies/out for any reason and whether a replacement is confirmed by the Senate before the end of Jan 3 2027. The market resolves to one of three outcomes: Supreme Court Justice Leaves + New Justice Confirmed: A sitting Justice announces retirement/resigns/dies and the Senate confirms their replacement before 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027. Supreme Court Justice Leaves + No Justice Confirmed: A sitting Justice announces retirement/out but no replacement is confirmed by 11.59pm DC Time Jan 3 2027. No Supreme Court Justice Leaves: No sitting Justice out by Jan 3 2027. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Supreme Court and Senate confirmation votes, verifiable at supremecourt.gov and senate.gov, and major media reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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