2026 political predictions (add your own)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: The leader of a country will die at about a 69% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolution criteria Each option resolves independently to YES or NO based on events starting from today (30th May) through to the end of the year. The leader of a country will die: Resolves YES if a head of state or head of government (e.g., President, Prime Minister, Ruling Monarch, Supreme Leader) of a sovereign nation dies while in office during 2026. A figure in the Epstein files is prosecuted for wrongdoing: Resolves YES if any individual named in the official documents released is formally arrested, indicted, or criminally charged in connection with the files. A president will be assassinated: Resolves YES if a serving president of any sovereign nation is killed in a violent, politically motivated attack. There is a trial at the ICC: Resolves YES if a criminal trial formally begins proceedings in the International Criminal Court during 2026. NATO invokes Article 5: Resolves YES if the North Atlantic Council formally invokes Article 5. ❗Add your own 😀 Update 2026-05-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'A president will be assassinated' option, the following roles qualify: Presidents Prime Ministers Monarchs
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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5 outcomes
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9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is moderately concentrated with Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez combining for 66%, but the 21% for both Buttigieg and Harris and a 23% 'Other' share show significant latent openness; the biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in 2028 (NYT, Jul 24), which could reshape candidate strategies and delegate math.
8 outcomes
2028 Presidential Election Winner
The field is unusually fragmented with no candidate above 18%, and the top three sum to just 41%, reflecting a wide-open race where the biggest recent shift is the absence of a clear front-runner despite ongoing midterm elections and controversies over election integrity. The 2026 primary results (NBC News, Jul 23) are reshaping candidate viability, but no single contender has consolidated support yet.
40 outcomes