Which UK political figures will defect to Reform UK before the next election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Suella Braverman at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolution criteria This market resolves YES for any UK political figure who defects to Reform UK before the date of the next election. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Reform UK and reporting in established media outlets (BBC, Telegraph, Guardian). Each answer resolves independently, multiple politicians can resolve YES. I've added some people who have been speculated in the past, feel free to add more as I'm sure more figures will be named in future. I kept the title vague: feel free to add any people who have at any time been elected to a position in the UK (Councillor, Mayor, PCC, MP, MSP, AM, MS), any sitting or previously sitting lords, or any high profile aides/political employees (Morgan McSweeney, Dominic Cummings types). I've also added a few more general options as well. (Edit - To clarify, i’ll count Danny Kruger as 1 for the Conservative Q) As resolution seems pretty clear, I may bet in this market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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