How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at the end of 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 9 to 16 at about a 80% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
How many US metro areas (Metropolitican Statistical Areas) in the top 50 in population (according to the 2020 census) will Waymo serve with publicly available driverless taxi rides at the end of 2026? As of the 2020 census, the 50th largest MSA was Hartford, CT with a population of 1.15 million. Rides must be paid, driverless, and available to the general public (i.e. not just employees or any sort of trusted tester program. But if there is a waitlist to manage demand that still counts). As of mid-2024, Waymo currently serves the SF, LA, and Phoenix metro areas and is planning to expand to Austin. Note that there are two metro areas in the Bay Area: SF and San Jose. See similar question (slightly different criteria) for 2025: (https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshYou/how-many-metro-areas-will-waymo-ser)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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