Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 84% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 84% right now.
The remix community is highly confident AI can produce a crowd-acceptable mashup of two iconic game themes by year's end, despite the subjective 'sounds wonderful' hurdle.
📊 Base rate: No clear historical base rate exists for AI-generated music remixes meeting subjective community standards, but early AI music tools (e.g., Jukebox) have often produced uncanny results.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; odds likely reflect ongoing belief in rapid AI progress and past successful AI music experiments.
The case for YES
- • AI models for music generation, like MusicLM and Stable Audio, have improved dramatically and can remix existing soundtracks with coherent structure.
- • The specific 'appropriate remix' standard on Reddit may be low—many community remixes are simple tempo overlays or lo-fi versions that AI can easily emulate.
- • The long time horizon (by end of 2026) allows for multiple iterations and fine-tuning by users leveraging feedback loops from Internet communities.
The case for NO
- • 'Sounds wonderful' is a subjective, high bar—random AI outputs often have tonal mismatches or rhythmic clashes that are jarring to discerning fans of either franchise.
- • Both themes have specific melodic and emotional contexts (military marching vs. sci-fi urgency) that an AI may fail to blend tastefully without deep musical understanding.
- • The 'not horrible enough [by the Internet's standards]' qualifier adds a layer of ironic community gatekeeping that could lead to rejection even for technically decent outputs.
What to watch
- • Release of a major AI music generation update (e.g., Google’s Lyria or Meta’s MusicGen 2) in late 2025 – would increase Yes odds if quality vastly improves.
- • A publicized failed attempt or viral 'bad AI remix' of either theme on Reddit – could temporarily boost No odds by highlighting current limitations.
- • No specific known upcoming events mentioned in headlines; general biannual model releases are the primary uncertain catalyst.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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