[PROP BET] What will happen with Trump’s military deployments to cities? [ADD ANSWERS]
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Trump deploys troops to any state with a Republican governor at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Background On Aug 11, 2025, President Trump issued Executive Order 14333 declaring a crime emergency in Washington, D.C., shifting MPD to federal purposes and activating D.C. National Guard support; additional measures followed on Aug 25. (whitehouse.gov) On Oct 8, 2025, reporting indicated Texas National Guard troops arrived at a staging site in Illinois amid plans targeting the Chicago area; Illinois and Chicago filed suit. Related reporting described planned expansions (e.g., Memphis). Trump and advisors have publicly discussed invoking the Insurrection Act if governors or courts impede deployments. Resolution criteria “Military” means National Guard (any status: state active duty/Title 32 or federalized/Title 10) or active‑duty U.S. armed forces. Federal civilian agents (e.g., ICE, FBI, DHS/DOJ task forces) do not count. All entries resolve at midnight EST on 1/1/2027, unless otherwise specified “In a city” means troops are on duty within that city’s legal boundaries. Staging outside the city does not count unless troops subsequently operate inside the city. Minimum threshold: either (a) ≥24 hours of on‑duty presence in the city, or (b) an official order explicitly deploying troops to that city that is executed (troops actually arrive). Please note this market refers to deployments outside of disaster relief Ambiguously worded answers (e.g., unspecified city or force) may be edited for clarity before resolution; otherwise they risk N/A. Update 2025-10-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): An answer about deployment to a state with a Republican governor will resolve YES (as clarified in context of Memphis, Tennessee deployment).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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