Which of these companies will outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Micron Technology (MU) at about a 94% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
At EOY 2026, I will get S&P 500 YTD stock returns from yahoo finance. I will also get YTD company returns from the same source, (e.g.). I believe both are adjusted for splits and dividends. A market resolves YES if the company outperforms the S&P and NO otherwise. I have added the top 50 companies in the S&P as of 2025-12-29. I am not planning to add any additional companies. Note that I have added 2000 M limit orders at 40% and 60% for all options on the market. These expire before the open on Jan 2 2026.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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