Will any EU city see a protest with ≥50,000 confirmed participants during these periods?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before June 23, 2026 at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Criteria: Location: Any city within the European Union (EU) Event: A single protest or demonstration (not cumulative multi-city totals) Size: ≥50,000 participants Must be confirmed by at least one reliable source (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, government/police estimate) Resolution rules: Time is evaluated in UTC (June 23, 16:00 UTC to September 27, 2026, 08:00 UTC to December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC) Each time-period answer resolves YES if at least one qualifying protest occurs within that interval, otherwise NO Organizer-only estimates are not sufficient unless supported by a credible independent source If a protest spans multiple days, only the day(s) with ≥50,000 participants counts If an event occurs exactly on a boundary, it counts toward the earlier interval Market will close on the 1st of January 2027 Clarifications: Nationwide or multi-city protests do not count unless a single city independently reaches ≥50,000 participants The United Kingdom, Serbia, and other non-EU countries do not count If uncertainty exists, preference is given to lower estimate between credible sources (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, major national media, or official/police estimates)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is moderately concentrated with Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez combining for 66%, but the 21% for both Buttigieg and Harris and a 23% 'Other' share show significant latent openness; the biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in 2028 (NYT, Jul 24), which could reshape candidate strategies and delegate math.
8 outcomes
2028 Presidential Election Winner
The field is unusually fragmented with no candidate above 18%, and the top three sum to just 41%, reflecting a wide-open race where the biggest recent shift is the absence of a clear front-runner despite ongoing midterm elections and controversies over election integrity. The 2026 primary results (NBC News, Jul 23) are reshaping candidate viability, but no single contender has consolidated support yet.
40 outcomes