Before which quarters will Canada's population exceed 42 million?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before Q2 2027 at about a 10% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This will resolve based on Statistics Canada's quarterly population estimates. Estimates indicate the estimated population on the first day of the quarter, so if the estimate for Q4 2025 is greater than 42 million, then the entry for "Before Q4 2025" will be presumed to be resolve YES (and each later entry likewise).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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