When’s the next American rebellion? 🇺🇸🔥👊🔫
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Other at about a 86% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
We’re going by the List of rebellions in the United States on Wikipedia. Entries will need to remain up for 14 consecutive days for this to Resolve YES. Market will extend as needed. Previous entries include: Jan 6th, 2021 CHOP in Seattle [2020] Occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge [2016] … American Civil War [1865]
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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