How many seats will the UK Conservative Party win at the next general election?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: >=50 at about a 82% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The Conservatives won 121 seats in the 2024 general election. How many will they win in the next one? If the Conservative party splits into multiple parties, or some MPs defect to other parties, the party that is considered the "real" Conservative Party will be the one who the largest number of the 121 MPs elected in July 2024 are members of.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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