What’s the next state to legalize recreational marijuana? 🍁
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Pennsylvania at about a 84% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Today, weed is recreationally legal in 24 states (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington). What’s the next one to legalize it? Only US states count here, not territories. Also multiple states can be resolve YES, if and only if, ballots / laws legalizing weed are passed on the same date in multiple states. If marijuana becomes federally recreationally legal before any new state makes it legal, every state will resolve to YES.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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