Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: South Africa at about a 95% chance — almost certain.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolution criteria An option in this market will resolve YES if, at 23:59:00 local time on 1 January 2027, same-sex marriages have legal recognition in the named jurisdiction. Each option will otherwise resolve NO. Clarifications For the purpose of this market, a jurisdiction may recognise same-sex marriages without necessarily performing them. If, for example, a jurisdiction only recognises same-sex marriages performed extraterritorially, this is sufficient to resolve YES. It is not sufficient, however, for a jurisdiction to allow informal same-sex marriages with no legal recognition. I will not trade in this market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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