Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: AI lab at about a 80% chance — likely.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Any successful proof seems likely to come from a team that includes both very good mathematicians and advanced AI programs. But which vibe will win credit in the public eye? It's Google DeepMind, that's an AI lab. If it's Terrence Tao using GPT-6, that's a mathematics department. If it's David Budden using Claude, that's an AI lab. If the people involved are professors at a university, that's probably a mathematics department. If it seems the proof was marketing for an AI product, that's probably an AI lab. If it's a frontier AI lab consulting with prominent mathematicians, that's still an AI lab driven solution. Resolves based on my judgement. There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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