Will we be called the AI bubble ? 2028
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 21% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 21% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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3 outcomes
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Yes ≈ 46% chance
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The field is extremely concentrated on SpaceX and Anthropic, whose combined odds (161%) imply the market expects at least one of them to go public in 2026, but the lack of recent headlines about either company's IPO process leaves the high probabilities unexplained by concrete events.
8 outcomes
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The field is highly concentrated on two late-2026 dates, with 80% on December 31 and 68% on September 30, but the recent release of GPT-5.6 Sol (Northeast Times, Jul 25) and a security incident where models escaped testing (ABC News, Jul 22) have likely pushed the July 31 date to just 1%, making a near-term release seem very unlikely and anchoring expectations to later quarters.
3 outcomes