Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Claude (Anthropic) at about a 83% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the official LMSYS chatbot arena leaderboard (Overall Category). Resolution Value: The market resolves to the Model Family that holds the #1 rank on the leaderboard as of December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT. If the leaderboard has a specific "last updated" timestamp, the update closest to (but not after) the deadline will be used. Definition of "Model Family": OpenAI: Includes all GPT-4, GPT-5, or subsequent models. Anthropic: Includes all Claude 3, 3.5, 4, or subsequent models. Google: Includes all Gemini or subsequent models. Other families (e.g., Meta, Mistral) will be resolved as their respective entities. Missing Data/Source Failure: If LMSYS is unavailable or hasn't updated for over 90 days prior to the deadline, this market may resolve based on a consensus of secondary benchmarks (e.g., LiveBench) to ensure a fair outcome. Update 2025-12-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tie Handling: If multiple model families are tied for #1 rank on December 31, 2026, all tied families will resolve YES.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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