What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Eliezer Yudkowsky at about a 89% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Thanks to @TheAllMemeingEye for suggesting I duplicate and modify the following market: https://manifold.markets/TheAllMemeingEye/what-will-be-the-pdoom-of-these-ind?r=NGZh Artificial superintelligence (ASI) here means any artificial intelligence able to carry out any cognitive task better than 100% of the unenhanced biological human population. P(doom) here means the probability of humanity being wiped out by misaligned ASI. Ideally, the individuals will have publicly expressed their P(doom) within the past year, directly or indirectly (e.g., “I think it's practically guaranteed we're all gonna die” = 99%, “I think it's a toss-up whether we'll survive” = 50%, “there's a small but significant risk it'll kill us” = 10%, “the risks are negligible” = 1%, etc.), or they may even be contacted and asked for their P(doom) as defined above. If it is impossible to get a P(doom) (e.g., they are dead or refuse to give their opinion), then their option may be resolved as n/a. For answers added to my markets by other users, I reserve the right to edit, interpret and resolve the ones I deem inappropriate in my favor.
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View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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