OpenAI highest valuation by end of September 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: ≥$0.6T at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-09-30. Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing. Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events. Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-09-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time). ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close. Sources. Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ). Post-IPO market cap is public daily via standard market data. A single credible report is sufficient to resolve a threshold YES if not contradicted. Analyst estimates do not trigger resolution. See also: @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-2lnAgSs6st (this market) @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-hZtdnzp2O2 @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-0p5ULUEzzq @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-hR0N5nCsc0 @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-c5l05OPIzU @/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-RzAhzQO6CO @/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-valuation-by-end-sLNqnZzNQg @/Bayesian/spacex-highest-valuation-by-end-of-tOLZp0UZ0C @/Bayesian/openai-highest-annualized-revenue-r-REAzAN5ElN
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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