Will the first AI Superintelligence be installed on a classical computer, a quantum computer, or some other alternative?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Classical Computer at about a 70% chance — likely.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
A lot of speculation abounds as to when AI Superintelligence will emerge, or if it can do so to begin with. But very little is discussed on what kind of computer hardware an AI Superintelligence will be be installed on. So, I will pose the question here. Both AI and quantum computing have seen rapid progress in recent decades, but so far the bulk of AI development has occurred on classical computing architecture. Some have predicted that AGI, and also AI Superintelligence soon thereafter, will be developed or emerge from existing systems in as little as 5 - 20 years. On the other hand, it is possible that we might see the first commercially viable quantum computing systems in less than 10 years, with Google already having claimed quantum supremacy on multiple occasions. As such, it is also a question of which might be achieved first given current trends. Poll will remain open until 2030, or when quantum computers start to make significant penetration into both households and industry, or if AI Superintelligence is achieved on classical computing hardware. Update 1 - By "Classical" I mean any computer with Von-Neumann architecture or GPU's, which serves as the primary foundation of the vast majority of computer technology today. The "Other" category can be assumed to cover over any alternatives to that (DNA chips, hybrid systems, etc.)
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