Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

✨ The field is heavily skewed toward launch within 4 months but with near-zero chance in the next two weeks, reflecting the grounding after the May 28 booster failure (USA Today) — the key unknown is how long the investigation takes.

✨ The race is effectively over: all four winners have been publicly announced on July 23, 2026, collapsing the field to the four named recipients and making any further movement purely a matter of market resolution mechanics.

✨ Multiple news outlets report that AI models have achieved a perfect score at the 2026 IMO, making the 97% odds a near-certainty that the event has already occurred, with the market awaiting final formal confirmation.

Yes ≈ 97% chance

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.

✨ Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.

Yes ≈ 46% chance

✨ The field is extremely concentrated on SpaceX and Anthropic, whose combined odds (161%) imply the market expects at least one of them to go public in 2026, but the lack of recent headlines about either company's IPO process leaves the high probabilities unexplained by concrete events.