Will a movie win the 'best musical' academy award before the end of May 2030?

40¢Yes

40% 5 pts all-time

Yes

40¢

60¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 40% chance — less likely than not.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 40% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesMay 31, 2030 · 3y

Total volumeⱮ26

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes May 31, 2030 (3y)

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗