What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Attorney General: Pam Bondi at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Begins on January 20, 2025 after President Trump is sworn in. The cabinet official must either be fired or resign during Trumps term as President. A death will not count. I will fill in the name next to the cabinet position once a person officially assumes the office. Update 2025-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Impeachment Clarification: Impeachment Outcome: If the office holder is found guilty during an impeachment trial and is removed from office, it will be considered as being fired. Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Amicable Resignation Clarification: Amicable departures, including stepping down to pursue another role, will be treated as valid resignations. The intent is that nominees serve for the full presidential term, meaning mid-term voluntary departures count as resignations.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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