Which existing amendment to the Constitution of the United States will be repealed by EOY 2044 ?

26¢23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)

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23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)26%

22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)21%

11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)19%

26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)19%

20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)18%

25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)18%

20 more153%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: 23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.) at about a 26% chance.

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StatusOpen

ClosesJan 15, 2045 · 18y

Total volumeⱮ2.5K

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Jan 15, 2045 (18y)

Resolution criteria

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_Constitution_of_the_United_States Each option resolves YES if the corresponding amendment is repelled by EOY 2044, NO otherwise. I will add options for all amendments if the market meets enough success. Feel free to ask for clarification and edge cases. If the United States of America continues to exist as a country but stops having a constitution at all by EOY 2044, all options shall resolve YES.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗