The Trump “J6” DC Election Interference Indictment
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before trial begins: all 4 charges dropped, or whole case dismissed at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
recently… (full indictment here) In August 2023, Chutkan set trial for March 4th, 2024. This was close to federal prosecutors' proposal of January 2, 2024, whereas Trump's team had suggested April 2026. On February 2, 2024, Judge Tanya Chutkan said she would not schedule a trial until the DC Circuit Court of Appeals decided whether Trump was immune from prosecution. After that court unanimously ruled that Trump was not immune Trump appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which ruled on July 1 that former presidents have "some immunity from criminal prosecution" for their "official acts" made during their presidency. As a result, on August 27, the special counsel issued a superseding indictment that maintained the same four charges but omitted some specific allegations. [image]Trump responds… [image]Here are the statutes (laws) each charge refers to: 1. Conspiracy to Defraud the United States (18 U.S.C. § 371): This law makes it a crime for two or more persons to conspire to defraud the United States or any agency thereof in any manner or for any purpose. The charge alleges that Trump conspired with others to obstruct the lawful function of the government, specifically the process of certifying the election results. 2. Conspiracy to Obstruct an Official Proceeding (18 U.S.C. § 1512(k)): This statute makes it illegal to conspire to corruptly obstruct, influence, or impede any official proceeding. In this case, it refers to the certification of the Electoral College vote by Congress on January 6, 2021. 3. Obstruction of and Attempt to Obstruct an Official Proceeding (18 U.S.C. §§ 1512(c)(2) and 2): This charge is based on the law that makes it a crime to obstruct, influence, or impede any official proceeding, or attempt to do so. It specifically applies to Trump's actions aimed at disrupting the certification of the 2020 election results. 4. Conspiracy Against Rights (18 U.S.C. § 241): This law criminalizes conspiracies to injure, oppress, threaten, or intimidate any person in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured to them by the Constitution or laws of the United States. In this context, it refers to Trump's alleged efforts to deprive voters of their right to have their votes counted in a free and fair election. These charges are grounded in well-established federal statutes and are being applied in the context of Trump's actions leading up to and on January 6, 2021. In this market, every option will resolve NO on January 1st, 2031, if the respective event does not happen by then. I will resolve options as they happen and I won’t trade in this market. comment any news or questions you have. I’ll add earned fees into subsidy. also, drop ideas for options to add 💙 related: gag order violation market serve time wen market how will trump serve time market (https://manifold.markets/embed/pluffASMR/the-trump-j6-dc-election-interferen)
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