When will Betelgeuse go supernova?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before 1113135 at about a 65% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The star Betelgeuse is a red supergiant at the distance of 600 light years from Earth. It is expected to go supernova roughly within the next 100’000 years. However in 2019-20 Betelgeuse temporarily lost more than half of its brightness, which caused some speculations that it might go supernova sooner, potentially this century. The market resolves positively as soon as the light of Betelgeuse supernova reaches Earth. I do not bet on my own questions.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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