Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 54% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 54% right now.
The market is pricing a slight edge for a machine passing a specific, high-bar version of the Turing test by 2029, but the near-coin-flip odds reflect deep uncertainty about whether LLM advances will translate into the sustained, adversarial conversation required by the Longbets format, not just raw capability gains.
📊 Base rate: No historical base rate exists for this specific bet, as no AI has ever passed a Turing test variant with the Longbets' 25-year horizon and adversarial judging, making the 54% odds a pure speculative consensus rather than a data-driven prior.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds appear to be drifting on general sentiment about AI progress rather than a specific headline or event.
The case for YES
- • Rapid LLM advances (e.g., GPT-4, Gemini) show machines can already mimic human conversation in short exchanges, and a 2029 deadline allows for continued scaling and refinement.
- • The Longbets version likely requires sustained, topic-flexible dialogue, which is a direct target for next-generation models with improved memory and reasoning.
- • Major labs (OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic) are explicitly pursuing human-level interaction, and the 2029 timeline aligns with their roadmaps for more capable systems.
The case for NO
- • The adversarial judging format means a human interrogator actively tries to expose the machine, a much harder test than standard chatbot benchmarks, and current models still fail under sustained probing.
- • LLMs lack genuine understanding and common sense, making them vulnerable to questions about causality, physical reality, or personal experience that a human would answer naturally.
- • No clear catalyst recently suggests the market lacks a strong signal that a breakthrough is imminent, and the 46% No odds reflect skepticism that the gap will close in just 3.5 years.
What to watch
- • A public demonstration of a system passing a similar adversarial Turing test (e.g., at a conference like NeurIPS 2026 or 2027) would likely push odds toward Yes.
- • A major paper or announcement from a leading lab (e.g., OpenAI, DeepMind) detailing a system specifically designed for sustained dialogue would increase Yes probability.
- • A high-profile failure, such as a well-known AI failing a public Turing test challenge, would likely shift odds toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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