Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2034 at about a 89% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Once a human lands on the moon in year X, all the years after the year X will resolve to YES as well. The "human" landing on the "moon" must be a safe landing in the sense that the human lands on the moon alive. That's all that matters. i will resolve the 2024 option soon after the creation of the market, as it was only to create continuity.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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