Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not (Set)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Never or after 1/1/2030 at about a 68% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Set version of question here (with more options): https://manifold.markets/zcoli/date-first-peer-reviewed-manuscript This version was created in order to be able to resolve options prior to 2029. The reference date is the date a peer reviewed manuscript first appears online at the journal website or is otherwise published by any of these three journals after being accepted for publication. Any peer reviewed manuscript type is acceptable. If lab leak likelihood is generally accepted based on data and analysis elsewhere, inevitably this will be cited approvingly in a peer reviewed manuscript in one of these journals shortly thereafter. Any statement equivalent to finding over 50% likelihood for SARS-CoV-2 originating in a laboratory that reflects author(s) conclusions and is published following peer review qualifies. In the vanishingly unlikely event anyone asks, I will refuse to comment on potentially qualifying manuscripts in submission. While this is the most objective question I could come up with to address this point, I will not participate in the market. Update 2025-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will close on January 1, 2026 and will be reopened after resolving the first question.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
When will Starship flight 13 happen?
The field is heavily skewed toward launch within 4 months but with near-zero chance in the next two weeks, reflecting the grounding after the May 28 booster failure (USA Today) — the key unknown is how long the investigation takes.
30 outcomes
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?
The race is effectively over: all four winners have been publicly announced on July 23, 2026, collapsing the field to the four named recipients and making any further movement purely a matter of market resolution mechanics.
52 outcomes
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
Multiple news outlets report that AI models have achieved a perfect score at the 2026 IMO, making the 97% odds a near-certainty that the event has already occurred, with the market awaiting final formal confirmation.
Yes ≈ 97% chance
Apple Announces AI Glasses by September 30, 2026
The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.
2 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Companies to go public in 2026
The field is extremely concentrated on SpaceX and Anthropic, whose combined odds (161%) imply the market expects at least one of them to go public in 2026, but the lack of recent headlines about either company's IPO process leaves the high probabilities unexplained by concrete events.
8 outcomes