Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: John Healey at about a 89% chance — very likely.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Combined conditional market on Burnham becoming PM and who he picks as Chancellor of the Exchequer if he does. Please only add Labour MPs as options. (Use the "Other" option if you think a non-Labour MP might get the job.) I don't think there are any circumstances under which this market can resolve NA. If you have an edge case that I haven't covered in the small print, please let me know. Resolves to "Current Role Holder" on this page: https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer If something is wrong with that page, or it ceases to exist, resolves to "Incumbent" on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chancellor_of_the_Exchequer Otherwise resolves to my judgement, after discussion with market participants. Small print: If the role ceases to exist, market resolves Other If the role is renamed, resolves to whoever holds that role If something between the above two happens, I'll use my judgement to interpret if there's something close enough to a successor role and resolve to the holder of that role, after discussion with market participants If two people share the role, resolves PROB split between those two people. I won't commit to what percentage this is, but will use judgement and discussion with market participants I will bet in this market. I think the "judgement" cases are unlikely enough that this is a negligible risk. If you are uncomfortable with this, either ask me to refine the small print or don't bet. No AI clarifications will be added to this market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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