When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: By end of December 2028 at about a 87% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain) *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions) Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch UTC is used Related markets: @/Nat/when-will-starship-first-deploy-a-s
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