Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.
Despite Elon Musk's immense wealth and SpaceX's Starship, the 12% odds reflect a market that sees his Mars walk as a distant, unlikely dream given his age, technical hurdles, and growing personal controversies that may distract from the mission.
📊 Base rate: No human has ever walked on Mars, and the base rate for any individual achieving that feat in their lifetime is effectively zero; the current 12% odds are therefore already speculative.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines focus on Musk's erratic behavior and legal troubles, such as the 'Epstein Walk Of Shame' (Yahoo, Mar 2026) and his daughter walking off when asked about him (VnExpress, Jun 2026), which may signal reputational and bandwidth risks that lower the chance of sustained Mars focus.
- • No positive Mars-specific headlines appear in the provided data, suggesting the market sees no recent concrete progress toward a crewed landing, keeping the odds low.
- • Warren Buffett's criticism of Musk-sized pay packages (Fortune, Nov 2025) reinforces a narrative that Musk's extreme compensation and leadership style are not widely trusted, potentially undermining investor confidence in his Mars timeline.
The case for YES
- • Musk is the world's first trillionaire (The Verge, Jun 2026), giving him unprecedented personal resources to fund Starship development and Mars mission costs without relying on external funding.
- • SpaceX's Starship is the most advanced rocket ever built, and if it succeeds in orbital refueling and crewed test flights, a Mars landing in the 2030s becomes technically feasible within Musk's lifetime.
- • Musk has repeatedly stated his goal to die on Mars, and his extreme persistence (e.g., walking barefoot in snow, per Times of India, Jun 2026) suggests he will push through obstacles that would deter others.
The case for NO
- • No human has ever set foot on Mars, and the technical challenges of life support, radiation, and landing a large payload remain unsolved; even optimistic NASA timelines target the 2040s, when Musk would be in his 70s.
- • Musk's age (55 in 2026) and health risks from a years-long Mars journey make it unlikely he personally survives the trip; his own daughter's public rejection (VnExpress, Jun 2026) hints at personal turmoil that could affect his focus.
- • The crop of scandals – from the 'Epstein Walk Of Shame' (Yahoo, Mar 2026) to being called 'a killer' (The Verge, Jun 2026) – may erode the political and regulatory support needed for a government-backed Mars mission, forcing SpaceX to rely on a slower commercial path.
What to watch
- • SpaceX's first orbital Starship test flight to Mars (currently unconfirmed) – a successful launch would increase Yes odds, a failure or delay would decrease them.
- • NASA's next Artemis Moon landing (targeted 2028) – if achieved, it builds confidence in deep-space capability and slightly raises Yes odds; a delay would lower them.
- • Musk's next major health scare or public announcement of a Mars timeline – a clear, specific deadline (e.g., '2033') would raise Yes odds; a resignation or health crisis would lower them.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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