If Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential Election, how will abortion be restricted federally before 2027?

84¢None of the above

Price history builds as this market trades.

No price history yet

None of the above84%

Banned after 6 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)36%

Banned after 24 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)25%

Banned after 20 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)25%

Banned after 15 weeks (perhaps with exceptions)22%

Banned with exceptions9%

1 more2%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: None of the above at about a 84% chance — likely.

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StatusOpen

ClosesJan 1, 2027 · 5mo

Total volumeⱮ2.5K

Liquidity

Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

Discussion

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Jan 1, 2027 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

If Donald Trump does not win, this question will be resolved N/A Multiple answers can resolve yes as follows: "Banned in all cases" and "Banned with exceptions" are mutually exclusive. If either of them resolve YES, then "Banned after X weeks" will resolve YES. If "Banned after X weeks" resolves YES, "Banned after Y weeks" (Y > X) resolves YES If "None of the above" resolves YES, nothing else resolves YES (obviously) "exceptions" includes life of the mother, rape/incest, and other exceptions that affect (cumulatively) <10% of pregnancies. If abortions for teenage pregnancies were be completely banned, and no other abortions were restricted, this market would resolve "None of the above."

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Manifold ↗