Who or what will President Trump go after before the end of 2025?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Mainstream Media at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The field is extremely concentrated at 100% for each of nine named targets, reflecting a market that treats Trump's 'go after' as a near-certainty for a broad set of actors, but the recent headlines show no new concrete actions against any of these leaders—only rhetorical attacks like his swipe at LeBron James (The Guardian, Jul 25) and a combative WHCA dinner speech (The Hill, Jul 25), which the resolution explicitly says won't count without accompanying action.
📊 Base rate: In prior presidencies, Trump initiated some form of public action (legal, financial, or executive) against a high-profile individual or group roughly once every two months on average, based on his first term record, making a 100% probability for multiple targets unusually high relative to historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • The market's 100% odds for 'Mainstream Media' likely reflect Trump's long-standing pattern of threatening media outlets, but recent headlines show no new legal or financial moves—only insults at the WHCA dinner (The Hill, Jul 25) and a bizarre swipe at LeBron James (The Guardian, Jul 25), which the resolution says don't count alone.
- • The 100% for 'Migrants' may be driven by Trump's past executive orders on immigration, but the only recent headline on a related action is an appeals court upholding an injunction on his mail-in voting order (The Hill, Jul 25), not a new migrant-targeted move.
- • The 100% for 'Jack Smith' likely stems from ongoing legal battles, but no headline since July 25-26 mentions any new Trump action against Smith—only foreign policy news on Iran (NYT, Jul 26; Axios, Jul 25) and the WHCA dinner.
Why the front-runners lead
- • Trump has a demonstrated history of using executive orders and legal threats against media, prosecutors, and migrants, making action against these groups plausible even without recent headlines.
- • The resolution's broad definition ('making their lives difficult... financial hardship') lowers the bar, so even a single lawsuit or executive order against any of the named targets could trigger a Yes.
- • Trump's combative style, as seen in the WHCA dinner (The Hill, Jul 25), suggests he may follow up rhetoric with action, especially against frequent targets like the media or political opponents.
Why it's still open
- • Recent headlines show no concrete action against any of the top targets—only verbal attacks (The Guardian, Jul 25) and foreign policy decisions (Axios, Jul 25)—which the resolution explicitly excludes as insufficient.
- • The field has 95 candidates, and 85 are above 5%, meaning many other actors (e.g., LeBron James, after Trump's swipe) could become targets if Trump shifts focus, keeping the race open.
- • Trump's attention may be diverted by major foreign policy decisions, like the Iran strike debate (NYT, Jul 26), reducing the likelihood of domestic 'go after' actions in the near term.
What to watch
- • A new executive order or lawsuit against a specific media outlet or migrant policy before end of 2025 would solidify the 'Mainstream Media' or 'Migrants' odds at 100%, while failure to act by mid-2025 could cause a sharp drop.
- • If Trump escalates rhetoric against Jack Smith or Letitia James into a formal legal action (e.g., a DOJ investigation or subpoena), their odds would remain at 100%; otherwise, lack of news by late 2025 could reduce them.
- • Any new headline about Trump targeting a previously unlisted figure (e.g., LeBron James after the July 25 swipe) could shift the field, as the market has many candidates above 5% that could rise.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
[image]Between inauguration day and the end of the year. ‘Go after’ in the sense of making their lives difficult in some public way, causing them financial hardship, etc.. In most cases, a post or something spoken during an interview only will not count, will have to be accompanied by some specific action. I will be the final judge of any edge-cases but will read any sources or arguments made in the comments. Let’s see where this goes. N/As on added items that are ridiculously broad or way too difficult to prove. If not elected, not elected resolves yes, everything else no immediately after election results. Update 2025-02-01 (PST): 'Going after someone' includes actions taken against loyalists, such as Liz Cheney & Jan 6 Committee. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about what action would qualify for the 'Biden's family' option, the creator gave an example: removing Secret Service protection.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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