Will "My model of what is going on with LLMs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 13% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 13% right now.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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Yes ≈ 46% chance
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8 outcomes
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52 outcomes
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3 outcomes
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Beyond Anthropic's 99% dominance, the field is completely binary: either Anthropic’s model extends its current Arena lead or a sudden ranking shift from a rival like DeepSeek or OpenAI upends the race before the July 31 snapshot — the single biggest recent shift was the collapse of OpenAI’s odds from a once-competitive position to 0%, possibly linked to its GPT-5.6 availability delay (9to5Mac, Jul 8).
26 outcomes