Which UK Constituencies will see By-Elections in the 2024 (59th) Parliament?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Runcorn and Helsby at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
During the course of a parliament there are frequently several by-elections. Where will they be? Any constituency that holds a by-election to elect a new Member of Parliament will resolve YES on the day polling opens. All outstanding answers will resolve NO on the day parliament is dissolved for the next General Election.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗