What will be the next US presidential election to elect someone in their 50s?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: 2028 at about a 49% chance — a coin toss.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Note that this requires someone to be in their 50s on the day of assuming office. Someone elected at age 49 who then aged into it wouldn't count (unless reelected at age 53) Skipping 2024 since none of the presidential or VP candidates would qualify (Vance is too young and Harris turns 60 in October).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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