Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 99% right now.
Despite hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Warsh and a hot jobs report, the market is overwhelmingly confident that the Fed will cut rates below 4% by end-2026, likely betting on an economic slowdown or recession that forces a policy reversal.
What's driving it
- • Oil crashing below $70 (24/7 Wall St., Jun 25) is seen as deflationary, giving the Fed room to cut rates.
- • Forecasts of eventual mortgage rate declines (Forbes, Yahoo Finance, Jul 1) align with expectations of Fed rate cuts.
- • The market is discounting economists' prediction of no cuts this year (Investopedia, Jun 26), possibly anticipating a sharp downturn.
- • Recent Fed hold and hot jobs (U.S. Bank, CNBC, Jun 17 & 5) are viewed as temporary, with recession risks higher by end of 2026.
The case for YES
- • Oil crash below $70 historically signals deflationary pressure that often prompts Fed easing.
- • Mortgage rate forecasts of a return to 3% imply the fed funds rate must fall below 4%.
- • If the economy enters recession, new Chair Warsh could pivot from price stability to supporting growth.
The case for NO
- • Economists surveyed by Investopedia (Jun 26) explicitly state not to expect lower rates this year, suggesting no 2026 cut.
- • The Fed held rates steady and committed to price stability (U.S. Bank, Jun 17), indicating a hawkish bias.
- • A hot jobs report (CNBC, Jun 5) shows labor market resilience, reducing urgency to cut.
What to watch
- • July 2026 CPI release (mid-July) – lower inflation boosts Yes case; higher inflation could slightly reduce odds.
- • July FOMC decision (late July) – if Fed signals readiness to cut, odds go to 100%; if holds firm, small dip but still above 90%.
- • August jobs report (early Sep) – if unemployment rises, reinforces Yes; if strong, temporary uncertainty.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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